Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has begun to visit Asia, at the same time, the situation around the peninsula, there have been some new developments recently. Countries in this new deployment, as well as between the U.S. and North Korea for some time to the various possible interactions, are of concern. < br> First of all, several related to the DPRK nuclear issue, coincidentally recently announced or exposure of the appointment and removal of new and relevant officials.
appointed a new ambassador for Korean Peninsula affairs thick Lan Yang, Lee Cheong Wa Dae to the Unification Minister also taek Hyun granted the appointment form. The number of media also revealed that former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Bosworth (Stephen Bosworth) may be appointed special envoy for the United States to take over the Hill the next deal.
Second, the North Korean military 11th of this month had its high-level reshuffle. People's Army Chief of General Staff Kim Yong Chun plays the former commander, was appointed minister for the people by force, Liying Hao general was appointed as chief of staff.
According to South Korean media, This high-level North Korean military personnel changes, breaking more than a decade within the military balance of power state, Kim Yong Chun in the treatment process on the Korean Peninsula affairs of the hard-line style, seems to presage the future not only North Korea's military may be more involved in affairs of Korea and the United States, and may take a tougher approach.
In addition, a series of recent news that North Korea's military in December last year published by the General Staff spokesman for the hard-line statement on South Korea, recently may be preparing to launch the As a member of an international, not only has the right to choose to go into space, but also the right to participate in the peaceful uses of space science and technology competition. Clinton said the United States will never tolerate. Bush era Defense Secretary Robert Gates to remain in office, said that if North Korea test-fired In the inter-Korean bilateral relations, Lee Myung-bak administration took office last year have been tense after the state of, and to achieve the pinnacle of the end point. At that time, North Korea announced that it would repeal all of South Korea and agreements signed.
It insider sources familiar with North Korea, Korean situation has now reached the highest level of tension, the possibility of explosive, the DPRK within the atmosphere is full of a variety of preparations.
All this seems to give people the feeling of no agreement. In fact, one can still distinguish between several different levels, and find out one or several axes. And now some of the events on the Korean peninsula, it seems that people can sort out some lights.
First, problems in inter-Korean personnel changes in the political and military aspects. For some time, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's health have always been concerned about the situation, especially in North Korea on September 9 last year, the 60th anniversary of Kim Jong Il absent, become a major focus of concern .
Although a variety of unconfirmed insider continued, but it is certain that, from Kim Jong Il Meets with Chinese Minister Wang Jiarui recent situation, his health should not be affected much, he was North Korea maximum power and control over the military is basically as before. The high-level North Korean military personnel changes, it should be is under the guidance of Kim Jong Il personally conducted.
The North Korean military voice in political affairs is being increased, the current seems difficult to draw conclusions. But it is worth noting that newly appointed Minister of the People's Armed People's Army Kim Yong Chun served as chief of staff during the Korean has made a series of external hard-line military action.
Secondly, inter-Korean bilateral relations, as mentioned above, since Lee took office last year by the end of February, the DPRK has been expressed his dissatisfaction over the past decade that turned its back on South Korean Lee Myung-bak's policy toward the DPRK, but also turned its back on two Field spirit of inter-Korean summit agreements.
In this sense, the latest year for North Korea to South Korea's tough, though probably with North Korea's internal political balance of power has some relationship, but U.S. relations with North Korea is no necessary link . Of course, began in December last year, whether military or the United Front Department of North Korea are tough to South Korea once again demonstrates, there may be behind the consideration of the new government Qiaoshanzhenhu.
DPRK-US dialogue, hollowing out the six-party talks?
But in all these tensions, the US-DPRK relations seems to have been no problem. This is of course the one hand, the occasion of the outgoing Bush administration, has no time next to the care of the DPRK nuclear issue on this hard nut to crack, on the other hand, there are Korean wait for the new government to consider Obama.
may be appointed as the new U.S. special envoy on the Korean Peninsula Bosworth visited Pyongyang some time ago, had the impression that Pyongyang is eager to direct dialogue with the United States. According to news Sources revealed that the basic strategy of the future in Pyongyang is a direct dialogue with the United States, on this basis, the overall plan and adjust their foreign strategy.
In this framework, based on last year's inter-Korean tensions, North Korea may be in the U.S. and the DPRK direct dialogue and future six-party talks, South Korea and try to remove; the same time, Pyongyang is likely the U.S. will normalize relations with the decoupling of nuclear negotiations.
the news if true, that would mean in real terms in the six-party talks framework or may change, that is, the six-party talks on North Korea will no longer rely on the framework, and will further continue its contacts with the United States began before the process, and may further exclude South Korea, Japan, the two countries. The two countries, the future in the U.S. and the DPRK direct contact and dialogue process, the importance of the DPRK is bound to decline further.
from the strategy level, the recent North Korean missile test, such as the release of information, its real purpose is to pre-emptive strike, requiring the administration as soon as possible introduction of a system, a clear policy towards the DPRK.
should care about is the current attitude of the United States. from Hillary Clinton to visit Japan and South Korea travel, people may be able to sniff out clues some American attitudes.
of the Qiu Zhenhai Phoenix TV commentator
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