Of the Guangzhou 2011 Asian Games in the real estate market trends, there are two main factors, one is the macro fundamentals such as economic environment, the Guangzhou urban economy, urban construction, social wealth, monetary and credit policy and liquidity, market regulation policy, housing security system, etc.; the other which is the market factors such as market supply and demand, purchasing power, the development of enterprise fund status. In the first class of macroeconomic factors, basically can be summed up of two different forces: a force upward force to support the property market, such as economic, urban construction, social wealth, mobility, etc.; The other force is balanced, the constraints forces, mainly control policies. 2011 Canton real estate market trends is these two forces competing to decide.
shocks City is going to only buy the best
up
Expert viewpoint
overall decline in housing prices is unlikely
many years, on the house, we know that the only effective way is to use common sense view. The first common sense is the supply and demand determines the price. The second common sense: Demand very rigid. They say first time home buyers is a rigid demand, but I do to improve the model home, whether to change the first two changes, all kind of rigid - to afford the population, or at home, and want to live in bigger house, how not rigid it?
First, the Government set: Before the fall in property prices, you can only buy a house. Unless you are willing to purchase non-restricted area - that nature is far cold, the price is not high, the return of flat area. Second, the government shot: Baiyun District, photographed floor price per square meter of nearly 2 million. Under 5 years of experience, the introduction of the high price of land exclaimed, eventually became the envy of the introduction of a cash cow. This means that property prices in the area within two years more than 3 million, then the Yuexiu, Tianhe it? Third, changes in the market to us: the 2008-2009 financial crisis caused by the lessons of the property market volatility, when the fall down at least, and also pick up the fastest time. And vice versa.
this year, second-hand housing transaction volume affected by the policy will be suppressed, but because the cost of materials, labor costs, land prices, development costs rose sharply, housing prices increased pressure, the possibility of an overall decline in house prices is not expected to , especially in central city housing prices will continue to firm. Consumer confidence in the current real estate market is still relatively full, strong liquidity and inflation expectations, the housing prices have support. However, due to the central control efforts over the past year ever, is expected to price the short term there is a slight concussion. Experience from previous years, this year will loose some of the first half of line of credit, from the tight end of the second half to even stop lending. Therefore, this year to buy a house, then, should first consider whether to apply to the loan. Expect policy prices to buy a house just shot a friend, even if heading for the big price, but if you missed the best time to apply if the mortgage may not buy housing. Liwen Jiang (Hopefluent, chief market analyst)
to toss to toss, resulting in only a shock. Between the shocks, there are three facts, seems to have become a sign of the market continue upward.
Results in the second half, or see the outcome
my friends and I say: If you must buy a flat, vibration of the city to buy only the best! Only more expensive high returns, low returns are not necessarily cheaper. Small people increasingly can not afford the next property investment looks more and more like rich men's game. In a shock upstream of the market, you can stand the torment like to buy a house. Yun Liang (Shido Real Estate Executive Director) (order: Reporter Chenbai Fan)
track the property market this year,
2011 second-hand property market in Guangzhou, the negative factors are even more in 2010, it is quite variable. The first and second quarter of the national or central bank policies will certainly be re-introduced, basically the size of credit will continue to tighten around an issue, etc., a second-hand market can occur in 3,4 month, developers and owners will not immediately lower the price of shipping, it will become the mainstream of adjustment during the first half, a second-hand property market turnover year on year reduction in two to three percent. The third quarter, part of the larger financial pressure to cut prices developers will take the lead means Qiangzha November, and basically there will be regional sub-centers in the suburbs or a new disk, if the prices have dropped 10% to 15%, the price regulatory control to achieve the desired effect, the policy of Guangzhou will ban or restriction has been relaxed, then part of the pent-up demand will quickly enter the market, but the central region of the new disc prices more likely to remain strong. Property market in the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, developers should be very difficult in 2011 to 10 by the end of the annual sales target will be successfully completed, it will continue to offer part of the cargo unit shoots to attract prospective customers, but remain higher than last year's turnover of primary reduced over the same period at least two percent. Second-hand market, 2008, 2009, the second new house after another, after obtaining real estate license, at least 2 million units of new housing in batches into the secondary market, so the turnover of the second half of the roughly flat with last year. If the primary market to continue to play a leading role in suburban disk, then the city's 10 districts in 2011 the average transaction price of residential single-handedly maintained at 1.3 yuan / m2, a slight increase of 4% year on year. The secondary residential average price for a relatively low base, an increase of 15% or less in that city's average price of 1.3 yuan used / m2 or so. Baiyun Avenue, Palit plate circumference should continue to receive before the increase in the city, Zhujiang New City, 2 million within the plate / m2 the following property will gradually disappear. Zhou Feng (full house of senior manager) (order by: Bong-Holland Press)
third is to increase the cost of common sense does not change the price. Years of high, investment Ye Hao, speculation Ye Hao, will eventually come back, or even a wave after wave.
there will be promotion of the overall steady
most of the current second-hand housing market the property more than 5 years, 5 years time a new house is not a secondary market source of supply of the main disk. 5 years time to undertake new homes were mostly higher-end buyers. Part of the new business tax is actually equivalent to an increase in property prices rose 3% to 5%, from the current secondary market supply is tight downtown view, transaction costs increase by 3% to 5% still capable of acceptance. As first time home buyers used a higher proportion of the property market, the actual down payment mortgages by two sets of policy implications Liucheng About 20% of second-hand housing buyers, and buy the second home buyers һ�ַ� affected by the total estimated for 40%. When the purchase of policies promulgated and strictly enforced rules, the high-end market, especially the combined size products are likely to fall into the doldrums. As the new round of regulation of unprecedented, and Zengcheng, Conghua recent prices rose faster, so the purchase of a new round of rules does not exclude Zengcheng, Conghua were included in the purchase of range.
curb demand because of the orientation of the policy is fairly obvious, which took place from affected developers - development - pushing the production of goods supply chain in this series. As a result, the Guangzhou property market in 2011 some tight supply. In the inflation era of the home purchase demand and financial management objective is to preserve and increase appreciation of the integration will affect the market in 2011, an important factor, but under the strict control of the policy, focus on the release of the possibility of housing demand is not high, less supply in 2011 may be formed , the relative demand for less balanced pattern. I expect 2011 will be the stability of the entire real estate market in Guangzhou, mainly upward, and to give partial optimistic judgments. Long Bin (collectively rich home, chief market analyst)
not up Guangzhou GDP and per capita income in 2011 growth targets were determined to be about 11%, then taking into account the increase in the cost of the development is expected to set price targets, Guangzhou will have last year house prices rose about 10% reasonable. Guangzhou this year if prices do not rise to control the identified target, the price is equal to more than 10% over last year.
2011, economic development, monetary and credit and liquidity environment, social wealth of these factors on the real estate market will not support the role of substantial changes. In addition, it is worth attention is that the Asian Games in Guangzhou urban construction greatly speed makes the city the value of improved significantly. Rounds of the 2010 regulation, the impact of the Asian Games effect on housing prices has not been fully reflected in property values next year or two, increase the land value should be high probability events.
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